In the present general energy context, with ever-increasing economic, social and environmental demands and with fewer primary resources available, the principal worry of most countries is ensuring the long term supply for future generations. The scientific field that studies these requirements and suggests possible solutions to those responsible for the decisions is known as “Energy Planning”. This tool, which involves quantification analysis of the possible directives, is based on energy models and its application can be varied according to the country in question. Prospective energy models are valuable aids to carrying out quantitative analyses of the alternative energy scenarios and can be used to guide decisions on sustainable energy policies.

The objective of this thesis is to explore the possibilities offered by prospective energy models for application to the energy system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In this emerging African country, economic, demographic and social evolution may differ somewhat from present tendencies, thus needing a significant contribution from the energy sector in order to obtain its sustainable development. 

The first model applied to the Congo’s energy system was the MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) of the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, the difficulties encountered in applying this model, such as insufficient data on the country’s energy system, the non-existence of modules to evaluate the environmental impact and calculate the cost of the various projected energy scenarios, induced us to develop another model more appropriate for the actual situation in the Congo. To this model we gave the name “RDCONGO”. It uses information that is available in the country and contains important modules for calculating the economic effects of the alternative energy scenarios. It also provides for measuring CO2 emissions, the principal gas involved in the “greenhouse effect”. The results of the BAU (Business As Usual) scenario, carried out within the RDCONGO model for this thesis, show that the Congo’s energy prospects are neither acceptable nor sustainable. Consequently, other alternative energy scenarios have been drawn up, and, in line with the results obtained, the nature of the sustainable energy policy options offered for consideration to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

The flexibility of the proposed model means that it can be applied and adapted to other countries using energy systems similar to that of the Congo.