Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of the bladder cancer and the immune response applied to a patient: Evolution and short-term prediction

Abstract

[EN] Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favorable usually, and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper, we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favorable, neutral, and unfavorable. In the former, it is not expected any trace of the cancer in the middle of September 2018 (after 16 mo). In the neutral scenario, at the same date, a 7- to 8-mm tumor is expected. In the worst case, a 40-mm tumor is expected. The patient was cited on 10 September 2018 to check the tumor size, and according to the doctors, there was no sign of recurrence. It seems that we are in the favorable scenario. The patient will be called again for follow-up in mid-2019.