Quantile forecast optimal combination to enhance safety stock estimation

Abstract

[EN] The safety stock calculation requires a measure of the forecast error uncertainty. Such errors are usually assumed to be Gaussian lid (independently and identically distributed). However, deviations from lid lead to a deterioration in the performance of the supply chain. Recent research has shown that, contrary to theoretical approaches, empirical techniques that do not rely on the aforementioned assumptions can enhance the calculation of safety stocks. In particular, GARCH models cope with time-varying heterocedastic forecast error, and kernel density estimation does not need to rely on a determined distribution. However, if the forecast errors are time-varying heterocedastic and do not follow a determined distribution, the previous approaches are inadequate. We overcome this by proposing an optimal combination of the empirical methods that minimizes the asymmetric piecewise linear loss function, also known as the tick loss. The results show that combining quantile forecasts yields safety stocks with a lower cost. The methodology is illustrated with simulations and real data experiments for different lead times. (C) 2018 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.