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Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets

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Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets

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dc.contributor.author Alberola Oltra, Juan Miguel es_ES
dc.contributor.author García Fornes, Ana María es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2014-09-19T07:14:34Z
dc.date.available 2014-09-19T07:14:34Z
dc.date.issued 2013-04
dc.identifier.issn 0924-669X
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/39754
dc.description.abstract The sports betting market has emerged as one of the most lucrative markets in recent years. Trading in sports betting markets entails predicting odd movements in order to bet on an outcome, whilst also betting on the opposite outcome, at different odds in order to make a profit, regardless of the final result. These markets are mainly composed by humans, which take decisions according to their past experience in these markets. However, human rational reasoning is limited when taking quick decisions, being influenced by emotional factors and offering limited calibration capabilities for estimating probabilities. In this paper, we show how artificial techniques could be applied to this field and demonstrate that they can outperform even the bevahior of high-experienced humans. To achieve this goal, we propose a case-based reasoning model for trading in sports betting markets, which is integrated in an agent to provide it with the capabilities to take trading decisions based on future odd predictions. In order to test the performance of the system, we compare trading decisions taken by the agent with trading decisions taken by human traders when they compete in real sports betting markets. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been partially supported by CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 under grant CSD2007-00022, and project TIN2011-27652-C03-01. Juan M. Alberola has received a grant from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion de Espana (AP2007-00289). en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Springer Verlag (Germany) es_ES
dc.relation CONSOLIDER-INGENIO [CSD2007-00022, TIN2011-27652-C03-01] es_ES
dc.relation Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion de Espana [AP2007-00289] es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Applied Intelligence es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Sports betting markets es_ES
dc.subject Trading es_ES
dc.subject Odds prediction es_ES
dc.subject Case-based reasoning es_ES
dc.subject Humans es_ES
dc.subject.classification CIENCIAS DE LA COMPUTACION E INTELIGENCIA ARTIFICIAL es_ES
dc.subject.classification LENGUAJES Y SISTEMAS INFORMATICOS es_ES
dc.title Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s10489-012-0381-9
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Sistemas Informáticos y Computación - Departament de Sistemes Informàtics i Computació es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Alberola Oltra, JM.; García Fornes, AM. (2013). Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets. Applied Intelligence. 38(3):465-477. doi:10.1007/s10489-012-0381-9 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10489-012-0381-9 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 465 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 477 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 38 es_ES
dc.description.issue 3 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 234189
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