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Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

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Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

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dc.contributor.author Altarejos García, Luis es_ES
dc.contributor.author Escuder Bueno, Ignacio es_ES
dc.contributor.author Serrano Lombillo, Armando José es_ES
dc.contributor.author Gómez de Membrillera Ortuño, Manuel es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2015-03-03T19:29:12Z
dc.date.available 2015-03-03T19:29:12Z
dc.date.issued 2012-07
dc.identifier.issn 0167-4730
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/47660
dc.description.abstract Dam safety based on risk analysis methodologies demand quantification of the risk of the dam-reservoir system. This means that, for a given initial state of the system, and for the several failure modes considered, it is necessary to estimate the probability of the load events and the conditional probability of response of the system for a given load event, as well as estimating the consequences on the environment for the obtained response of the system. The following paper focuses in the second of these probabilities, that is, quantifying the conditional probability of response of the system, for a given load event, and for the specific case of concrete gravity dams. Dam-reservoir systems have a complex behavior which has been tackled traditionally by simplifications in the formulation of the models and adoption of safety factors. The purpose of the methodology described in this paper is to improve the estimation of the conditional probability of response of the dam-reservoir system for concrete gravity dams, using complex behavior models based on numerical simulation techniques, together with reliability techniques of different levels of precision are applied, including Level 3 reliability techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. The paper includes an example of application of the proposed methodology to a Spanish concrete gravity dam, considering the failure mode of sliding along the rock-concrete interface. In the context of risk analysis, the results obtained for conditional probability of failure allow several conclusions related to their validity and safety implications that acquire a significant relevance due to the innovation of the study performed es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Structural Safety es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Dam safety es_ES
dc.subject Structural reliability es_ES
dc.subject Risk analysis es_ES
dc.subject Numerical modeling es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Altarejos García, L.; Escuder Bueno, I.; Serrano Lombillo, AJ.; Gómez De Membrillera Ortuño, M. (2012). Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis. Structural Safety. 34(1):1-13. doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod Senia es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 13 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 34 es_ES
dc.description.issue 1 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 233624


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