Imagining the Future of the Internal Combustion Engine for Ground Transport in the Current Context

Abstract

[EN] Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) are the main propulsion systems for ground transport, both in on-road and off-road applications. By mid-2016, a special issue about ICEs for ground transport was announced, corresponding to this editorial. At this time, the forecast consensus was that it is not possible to replace ICEs in the powertrain of the majority of vehicles in the forthcoming decades, even considering the growth of plug-in electric and hybrid vehicles. The arguments for this consensus included the increasing demand of transport; the steep development of cleaner and more efficient ICEs; the availability of fossil fuels at good prices; and the high energy density of conventional fuels. Altogether, there seemed to be enough arguments supporting ICEs as the leading power plants propelling transport fleets worldwide. In the last half year, the situation has changed. Mass-media are claiming the death of ICEs in the midterm. Political speakers of several G7 countries, such as France and the UK, have announced banning ICEs in their markets, in some cases as early as 2040. Big cities such as London, Paris, Madrid, and Berlin are considering severe limits on ICEs in their streets. What analysis can be taken from this situation?