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Accounting for climate change uncertainty in long-term dam risk management

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Accounting for climate change uncertainty in long-term dam risk management

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dc.contributor.author Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier es_ES
dc.contributor.author Escuder Bueno, Ignacio es_ES
dc.contributor.author Morales-Torres, Adrián es_ES
dc.contributor.author Castillo-Rodríguez, J.T. es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-03-05T04:32:32Z
dc.date.available 2021-03-05T04:32:32Z
dc.date.issued 2021-04 es_ES
dc.identifier.issn 0733-9496 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/163191
dc.description.abstract [EN] This paper presents a practical approach to adaptive management of dam risk based on robust decision-making strategies coupled with estimation of climate scenario probabilities. The proposed methodology, called multi-prior weighted scenarios ranking, consists of a series of steps from risk estimation for current and future situations through definition of the consensus sequence of risk reduction measures to be implemented. This represents a supporting tool for dam owners and safety practitioners in making decisions for managing dams or prioritizing long-term investments using a cost-benefit approach. This methodology is applied to the case study of a Spanish dam under the effects of climate change. Several risk reduction measures are proposed and their impacts are analyzed. The application of the methodology allows for identifying the optimal sequence of implementation measures that overcomes uncertainty from the diversity of available climate scenarios by prioritizing measures that reduce future accumulated risks at lower costs. This work proves that such a methodology helps address uncertainty that arises from multiple climate scenarios while adopting a cost-benefit approach that optimizes economic resources in dam risk management. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher American Society of Civil Engineers es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Climate change es_ES
dc.subject Uncertainty es_ES
dc.subject Dam safety management es_ES
dc.subject Decision making es_ES
dc.subject Risk reduction es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Accounting for climate change uncertainty in long-term dam risk management es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001355 es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente - Institut Universitari d'Enginyeria de l'Aigua i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Fluixá-Sanmartín, J.; Escuder Bueno, I.; Morales-Torres, A.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. (2021). Accounting for climate change uncertainty in long-term dam risk management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 147(4):1-13. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001355 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001355 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 13 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 147 es_ES
dc.description.issue 4 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\415678 es_ES
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dc.subject.ods 13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos es_ES


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