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Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios

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Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios

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dc.contributor.author Hidalgo, Ieda Geriberto es_ES
dc.contributor.author Paredes Arquiola, Javier es_ES
dc.contributor.author Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín es_ES
dc.contributor.author Lerma-Elvira, Nestor es_ES
dc.contributor.author Lopes, Joao Eduardo Goncalves es_ES
dc.contributor.author Cioffi, Francesco es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-03-05T04:32:40Z
dc.date.available 2021-03-05T04:32:40Z
dc.date.issued 2020-12 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/163194
dc.description.abstract [EN] Knowledge on the effects of climate change in a system can contribute to the better management of its water and energy resources. This study evaluates the consequences of alterations in the rainfall and temperature patterns for a hydroelectric plant. The methodology adopted consists of four steps. First, a hydrological model is developed for the chosen basin following a semi-distributed and conceptual approach. The hydrological model is calibrated utilizing the optimization algorithm Shuffled Complex Evolution University of Arizona (SCE-UA) and then validated. Secondly, a hydropower model is developed fora hydroelectric plant of the chosen basin. The hydropower model is adjusted to the physical characteristics of the plant. Thirdly, future climate scenarios are extracted from the literature for the studied area. These scenarios include quantitative and seasonal climate variations, as well as different initial reservoir levels. Fourth, the hydrological-hydropower model is simulated for 52 scenarios and the impact of changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns for hydropower generation is evaluated. For each scenario, the water storage in the reservoir and energy produced by the plant are analyzed. The financial impact for extreme scenarios is presented. The methodology is applied to the Tres Marias hydroelectric plant at the upper SAo Francisco river basin (Brazil) and it can be replicated to any other hydropower system. The results show that extreme positive values predicted for rainfall will likely not cause issues to the plant, considering a moderate rise in temperature. However, negative predictions for rainfall, regardless of changes in temperature, should be an alert to the authorities responsible for water and energy resources management. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This study was funded by the Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP -grant #2018-00016-8), European Commission (EBW+ program), and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). The authors thank Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG), Agencia Nacional de Aguas (ANA), Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), and Camara de Comercializacao de Energia Eletrica (CCEE) for kindly providing the data needed to carry out this research. The authors also thank the developers of RS Minerve, computational tool utilized in this research, and Espaco da Escrita -Pro-Reitoria de Pesquisa (PRP/UNICAMP), for the language services provided. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Energy for Sustainable Development es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Hydroelectric plants es_ES
dc.subject Water resources es_ES
dc.subject Energy resources es_ES
dc.subject Hydrological model es_ES
dc.subject Hydropower model es_ES
dc.subject Climate variations es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.esd.2020.10.007 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FAPESP//2018-00016-8/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Cerrado es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente - Institut Universitari d'Enginyeria de l'Aigua i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Hidalgo, IG.; Paredes Arquiola, J.; Andreu Álvarez, J.; Lerma-Elvira, N.; Lopes, JEG.; Cioffi, F. (2020). Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios. Energy for Sustainable Development. 59:180-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2020.10.007 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2020.10.007 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 180 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 188 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 59 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 0973-0826 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\421460 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder European Commission es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Brasil es_ES
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