Kaplan-Meier Type Survival Curves for COVID-19: A Health Data Based Decision-Making Tool

Abstract

[EN] Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. All of them are publishing the number of new individuals infected, recovered and dead individuals, along with some supplementary material. These data are often recorded in a non-uniform manner and do not conform the standard definitions of these variables. In this paper we show that, using data from the first wave of the epidemic (February-June), Kaplan-Meier curves calculated with them could provide useful information on the dynamics of the disease in different countries. We developed our scheme based on the cumulative total number of infected, recovered and dead individuals provided by the countries. We present a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process, showing that the differences in evolution between countries are reflected in the corresponding Kaplan-Meier-type curves. We compare the curves obtained for the most affected countries at that time, with the corresponding interpretation of the properties that distinguish them. The model is revealed as a practical tool for countries in the management of the Healthcare System.