Dealing with variability in ecological modelling: An analysis of a random non-autonomous logistic population model

Abstract

[EN] This paper presents a methodology to deal with the randomness associated to ecological modelling. Data variability makes it necessary to analyse the impact of random perturbations on the fitted model parameters. We conduct such analysis for the logistic growth model with a certain sigmoid functional form of the carrying capacity, which was proposed in the literature for the study of parasite growth during infection. We show how the probability distributions of the parameters are set via the maximum entropy principle. Then the random variable transformation method allows for computing the density function of the population.