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dc.contributor.author | Acedo Rodríguez, Luis | es_ES |
dc.contributor.author | Moraño Fernández, José Antonio | es_ES |
dc.contributor.author | Santonja, F. | es_ES |
dc.contributor.author | Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto | es_ES |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-05-18T07:34:49Z | |
dc.date.available | 2017-05-18T07:34:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2016-05-15 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0378-4371 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10251/81353 | |
dc.description.abstract | [EN] The classic nonlinear Kermack-McKendrick model based upon a system of differential equations has been widely applied to model the rise and fall of global pandemic and also seasonal epidemic by introducing a forced harmonic infectivity which would change throughout the year. These methods work well in their respective domains of applicability, and for certain diseases, but they fail when both seasonality and high infectivity are combined. In this paper we consider a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, or SIR, model with two latent states to model the propagation and evolutionary history of varicella in humans. We show that infectivity can be calculated from real data and we find a nonstandard seasonal variation that cannot be fitted with a single harmonic. Moreover, we show that infectivity for the present strains of the virus has raised following a sigmoid function in a period of several centuries. This could allow the design of vaccination strategies and the study of the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | es_ES |
dc.language | Inglés | es_ES |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | es_ES |
dc.relation.ispartof | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications | es_ES |
dc.rights | Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd) | es_ES |
dc.subject | Compartmental models | es_ES |
dc.subject | Highly contagious diseases | es_ES |
dc.subject | Infectivity evolution | es_ES |
dc.subject | Varicella | es_ES |
dc.subject.classification | MATEMATICA APLICADA | es_ES |
dc.title | A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella | es_ES |
dc.type | Artículo | es_ES |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.153 | |
dc.rights.accessRights | Abierto | es_ES |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar - Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinària | es_ES |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universitat Politècnica de València. Facultad de Administración y Dirección de Empresas - Facultat d'Administració i Direcció d'Empreses | es_ES |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universitat Politècnica de València. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería del Diseño - Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyeria del Disseny | es_ES |
dc.description.bibliographicCitation | Acedo Rodríguez, L.; Moraño Fernández, JA.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2016). A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 450:278-286. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.153 | es_ES |
dc.description.accrualMethod | S | es_ES |
dc.relation.publisherversion | http://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.153 | es_ES |
dc.description.upvformatpinicio | 278 | es_ES |
dc.description.upvformatpfin | 286 | es_ES |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es_ES |
dc.description.volume | 450 | es_ES |
dc.relation.senia | 322686 | es_ES |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1873-2119 |