Prediction of SMEs Bankruptcy at the Industry Level with Balance Sheets and Website Indicators

Abstract

[EN] This paper addresses the importance of industry-specific models for SMEs bankruptcy prediction, building on earlier research finding larger predictive accuracy and enhanced temporal stability. Using Italian data, we propose separate bankruptcy prediction models for a few industries based on balance sheet data and explore the predictive power of SMEs' website html code structure. Our findings suggest that website data can serve as a valid complementary source for bankruptcy prediction, with different performances across sectors. We observe a certain degree of sectoral heterogeneity in the importance of financial ratios, firm-specific characteristics, and website structure, calling for an industry-tailored approach in bankruptcy prediction models.