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Probabilistic prediction of outbreaks of meningococcus W-135 infections over the next few years in Spain

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Probabilistic prediction of outbreaks of meningococcus W-135 infections over the next few years in Spain

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dc.contributor.author Acedo Rodríguez, Luis es_ES
dc.contributor.author Burgos-Simon, Clara es_ES
dc.contributor.author Cortés, J.-C. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2018-06-21T04:21:04Z
dc.date.available 2018-06-21T04:21:04Z
dc.date.issued 2017 es_ES
dc.identifier.issn 0378-4371 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/104442
dc.description.abstract [EN] The genogroups of meningococcal and other bacteria are in competition in the ecosystem they form with the human hosts. Changes in vaccination strategies, prophylactic measures or usual habits, may also change the distribution of the genogroups in the ecosystem but, usually, this competition is ignored in most epidemiological models, despite it can be highly influential in the evolution of infection diseases and outbreaks. Our goal is to propose a susceptible carrier susceptible (SCS) epidemiological model to determine the percentage of carriers in the population, and introduce a fractional Lotka Volterra competition model to describe the evolution of the meningococcal genogroups in Spain among the carriers. Using data from the distribution of the genogroups in Spain in 2011 and 2012, we find the model parameters and their uncertainties according to a probabilistic fitting approach. On this basis, we predict the evolution of the carriers of the different genogroups over the next few years and, in particular, the percentage of carriers of meningococcus W-135 with a 95% confidence interval. Then, we estimate the probability of having a possible outbreak of meningococcus W-135 in Spain over the next few years. According to our model and, under the present conditions, the risk of a serious outbreak of W-135 in Spain in the next 3 years is below 0.3%. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2013-41765-P and the FIS grant PI13/01459. We also acknowledge Dr. Julio Vazquez from the Carlos III Institute of Health for providing the epidemiological data used in this work. en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//MTM2013-41765-P/ES/METODOS COMPUTACIONALES PARA ECUACIONES DIFERENCIALES ALEATORIAS: TEORIA Y APLICACIONES/ es_ES
dc.relation FIS/PI13/01459 es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject.classification MATEMATICA APLICADA es_ES
dc.title Probabilistic prediction of outbreaks of meningococcus W-135 infections over the next few years in Spain es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.043 es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar - Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinària es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Acedo Rodríguez, L.; Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2017). Probabilistic prediction of outbreaks of meningococcus W-135 infections over the next few years in Spain. Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 486:106-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.043 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.043 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 106 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 117 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 486 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\338373 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias es_ES


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