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Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex

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Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex

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dc.contributor.author Diaz-Rojo, Gisou es_ES
dc.contributor.author Debón Aucejo, Ana María es_ES
dc.contributor.author Giner-Bosch, Vicent es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2019-07-04T20:01:21Z
dc.date.available 2019-07-04T20:01:21Z
dc.date.issued 2018 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/123198
dc.description.abstract [EN] BACKGROUND: An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables. OBJECTIVE: Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available. DATA AND METHOD: We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures. RESULTS: Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model's fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children's ages and later ages for both sexes. CONCLUSION: The LC and LC2 models present better goodness of fit, identifying the principal characteristics of mortality for Colombia.Mortality forecasting from abridged life tables by sex has clear added value for studying differences between developing countries and convergence/divergence of demographic changes. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship Support for the research presented in this paper was provided by a grant from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain, project no. MTM2013-45381-P.
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Springer es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Genus. Journal of Population Sciences (Online) es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject Mortality estimation es_ES
dc.subject Lee-Carter model es_ES
dc.subject Mortality forecasting es_ES
dc.subject Life expectancy es_ES
dc.subject.classification ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA es_ES
dc.title Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1186/s41118-018-0038-6 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//MTM2013-45381-P/ES/DIFERENCIAS DE LONGEVIDAD EN LA UNION EUROPEA: APLICACION DE NUEVOS METODOS PARA SU EVALUACION Y ANALISIS/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad - Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa Aplicades i Qualitat es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Diaz-Rojo, G.; Debón Aucejo, AM.; Giner-Bosch, V. (2018). Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex. Genus. Journal of Population Sciences (Online). 74(15):1-23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-018-0038-6 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-018-0038-6 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 23 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 74 es_ES
dc.description.issue 15 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2035-5556 es_ES
dc.identifier.pmid 30363762
dc.identifier.pmcid PMC6182348
dc.relation.pasarela S\382061 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Empresa es_ES
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