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Electricity Forecasting Improvement in a Destination Using Tourism Indicators

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Electricity Forecasting Improvement in a Destination Using Tourism Indicators

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dc.contributor.author TRULL DOMÍNGUEZ, OSCAR es_ES
dc.contributor.author Peiró Signes, Angel es_ES
dc.contributor.author García-Díaz, J. Carlos es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-05T04:31:14Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-05T04:31:14Z
dc.date.issued 2019-07-03 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/160757
dc.description.abstract [EN] The forecast of electricity consumption plays a fundamental role in the environmental impact of a tourist destination. Poor forecasting, under certain circumstances, can lead to huge economic losses and air pollution, as prediction errors usually have a large impact on the utilisation of fossil fuel-generation plants. Due to the seasonality of tourism, consumption in areas where the industry represents a big part of the economic activity follows a different pattern than in areas with a more regular economic distribution. The high economic impact and seasonality of the tourist activity suggests the use of variables specific to it to improve the electricity demand forecast. This article presents a Holt¿Winters model with a tourism indicator to improve the effectiveness on the electricity demand forecast in the Balearic Islands (Spain). Results indicate that the presented model improves the accuracy of the prediction by 0.3%. We recommend the use of this type of model and indicator in tourist destinations where tourism accounts for a substantial amount of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), we can control a significant amount of the flow of tourists and the electrical balance is controlled mainly by fossil fuel power plants. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher MDPI AG es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Sustainability es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject Electricity es_ES
dc.subject Tourism es_ES
dc.subject Time series es_ES
dc.subject Forecasting es_ES
dc.subject.classification ORGANIZACION DE EMPRESAS es_ES
dc.subject.classification ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA es_ES
dc.title Electricity Forecasting Improvement in a Destination Using Tourism Indicators es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3390/su11133656 es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad - Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa Aplicades i Qualitat es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Organización de Empresas - Departament d'Organització d'Empreses es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Trull Domínguez, O.; Peiró Signes, A.; García-Díaz, JC. (2019). Electricity Forecasting Improvement in a Destination Using Tourism Indicators. Sustainability. 11(13). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133656 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133656 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 3656 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 11 es_ES
dc.description.issue 13 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2071-1050 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\390569 es_ES
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