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Stability of Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Models Applied to Hourly Electricity Demand in Spain

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Stability of Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Models Applied to Hourly Electricity Demand in Spain

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dc.contributor.author Trull, Óscar es_ES
dc.contributor.author García-Díaz, J. Carlos es_ES
dc.contributor.author Troncoso, Alicia es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-09T04:31:48Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-09T04:31:48Z
dc.date.issued 2020-04 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/160899
dc.description.abstract [EN] Electricity management and production depend heavily on demand forecasts made. Any mismatch between the energy demanded with respect to that produced supposes enormous losses for the consumer. Transmission System Operators use time series-based tools to forecast accurately the future demand and set the production program. One of the most effective and highly used methods are Holt-Winters. Recently, the incorporation of the multiple seasonal Holt-Winters methods has improved the accuracy of the predictions. These forecasts, depend greatly on the parameters with which the model is constructed. The forecasters need to deal with these parameters values when operating the model. In this article, the parameters space of the multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models applied to electricity demand in Spain is analysed and discussed. The parameters stability analysis leads to forecasters better understanding the behaviour of the predictions and managing their exploitation efficiently. The analysis addresses different time windows, depending on the period of the year as well as different training set sizes. The results show the influence of the calendar effect on these parameters and if it is necessary or not to update them in order to obtain a good accuracy over time. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship The authors would like to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the support under project TIN2017-8888209C2-1-R. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher MDPI AG es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Applied Sciences es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject Time series es_ES
dc.subject Forecasting es_ES
dc.subject Exponential smoothing es_ES
dc.subject Electricity demand es_ES
dc.subject.classification ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA es_ES
dc.title Stability of Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Models Applied to Hourly Electricity Demand in Spain es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3390/app10072630 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/TIN2017-88209-C2-1-R/ES/BIG DATA STREAMING: ANALISIS DE DATOS MASIVOS CONTINUOS. MODELOS PREDICTIVOS/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad - Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa Aplicades i Qualitat es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Trull, Ó.; García-Díaz, JC.; Troncoso, A. (2020). Stability of Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Models Applied to Hourly Electricity Demand in Spain. Applied Sciences. 10(7):1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10072630 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.3390/app10072630 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 16 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 10 es_ES
dc.description.issue 7 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2076-3417 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\412895 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Agencia Estatal de Investigación es_ES
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