- -

An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?

RiuNet: Institutional repository of the Polithecnic University of Valencia

Share/Send to

Cited by

Statistics

  • Estadisticas de Uso

An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?

Show simple item record

Files in this item

dc.contributor.author Sanchez-Caballero, Samuel es_ES
dc.contributor.author Sellés Cantó, Miguel Ángel es_ES
dc.contributor.author Peydro, M. A. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Pérez Bernabeu, Elena es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-07-22T03:33:36Z
dc.date.available 2021-07-22T03:33:36Z
dc.date.issued 2020-05 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/169736
dc.description.abstract [EN] The present work develops an accurate prediction model of the COVID-19 pandemic, capable not only of fitting data with a high regression coefficient but also to predict the overall infections and the infection peak day as well. The model is based on the Verhulst equation, which has been used to fit the data of the COVID-19 spread in China, Italy, and Spain. This model has been used to predict both the infection peak day, and the total infected people in Italy and Spain. With this prediction model, the overall infections, the infection peak, and date can accurately be predicted one week before they occur. According to the study, the infection peak took place on 23 March in Italy, and on 29 March in Spain. Moreover, the influence of the total and partial lockdowns has been studied, without finding any meaningful difference in the disease spread. However, the infected population, and the rate of new infections at the start of the lockdown, seem to play an important role in the infection spread. The developed model is not only an important tool to predict the disease spread, but also gives some significant clues about the main factors that affect to the COVID-19 spread, and quantifies the effects of partial and total lockdowns as well. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher MDPI AG es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Clinical Medicine es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject Coronavirus es_ES
dc.subject COVID-19 es_ES
dc.subject Prediction es_ES
dc.subject Forecast es_ES
dc.subject Model es_ES
dc.subject China es_ES
dc.subject Spain es_ES
dc.subject Italy es_ES
dc.subject UK es_ES
dc.subject France es_ES
dc.subject Germany es_ES
dc.subject SARS-CoV-2 es_ES
dc.subject Verhulst es_ES
dc.subject.classification ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA MECANICA es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA DE LOS PROCESOS DE FABRICACION es_ES
dc.title An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns? es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3390/jcm9051547 es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Mecánica y de Materiales - Departament d'Enginyeria Mecànica i de Materials es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad - Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa Aplicades i Qualitat es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Sanchez-Caballero, S.; Sellés Cantó, MÁ.; Peydro, MA.; Pérez Bernabeu, E. (2020). An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 9(5):1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9051547 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9051547 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 18 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 9 es_ES
dc.description.issue 5 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2077-0383 es_ES
dc.identifier.pmid 32443871 es_ES
dc.identifier.pmcid PMC7290738 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\412737 es_ES
dc.description.references Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., … Cao, B. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet, 395(10223), 497-506. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30183-5 es_ES
dc.description.references Al-qaness Mohammed A. A., Ewees, A. A., Fan, H., & Abd El Aziz, M. (2020). Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9(3), 674. doi:10.3390/jcm9030674 es_ES
dc.description.references Roosa, K., Lee, Y., Luo, R., Kirpich, A., Rothenberg, R., Hyman, J. M., … Chowell, G. (2020). Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9(2), 596. doi:10.3390/jcm9020596 es_ES
dc.description.references Shao, N., Zhong, M., Yan, Y., Pan, H., Cheng, J., & Chen, W. (2020). Dynamic models for Coronavirus Disease 2019 and data analysis. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 43(7), 4943-4949. doi:10.1002/mma.6345 es_ES
dc.description.references Sun, K., Chen, J., & Viboud, C. (2020). Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study. The Lancet Digital Health, 2(4), e201-e208. doi:10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30026-1 es_ES
dc.description.references Zhao, S., & Chen, H. (2020). Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China. Quantitative Biology, 8(1), 11-19. doi:10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0 es_ES
dc.description.references Kuniya, T. (2020). Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9(3), 789. doi:10.3390/jcm9030789 es_ES
dc.description.references Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineeringhttps://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 es_ES
dc.description.references Wuhan Lockdown “Unprecedented”, Shows Commitment to Contain Virus: WHO Representative in Chinahttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1ZM1G9 es_ES
dc.description.references First Case of Coronavirus Confirmed in Spainhttps://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-01-20-intl-hnk/h_afcf3a4665521aab11c721c8cc80dd03 es_ES
dc.description.references Coronavirus Confirmed as Pandemic by World Health Organizationhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-51839944 es_ES
dc.description.references MWC 2020: Smartphone Showcase Cancelled over Coronavirus Fearshttps://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51474116 es_ES
dc.description.references Capacity of the First League Stadiums in Spainhttps://www.enterat.com/actualidad/estadios-futbol-espana.php es_ES
dc.description.references More than 550,000 People Demonstrating for Women Rights in Madrid and Barcelonahttps://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/03/08/5c82a5da21efa09e348b469c.html es_ES
dc.description.references Madrid Locksdown the Education System and Recommends Teleworkinghttps://www.lavanguardia.com/local/madrid/20200309/474061897680/madrid-ordena-cierre-colegios-coronavirus.html es_ES
dc.description.references All of Italy Placed under Coronavirus Lockdownhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51810673 es_ES
dc.description.references State of Alarm Conditionshttps://www.boe.es/eli/es/rd/2020/03/14/463/con es_ES
dc.description.references Merkel Says ‘Let’s Get through This’ as Shops, Bars and Churches Shuthttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-economy/merkel-says-lets-get-through-this-as-shops-bars-and-churches-shut-idUSKBN213178 es_ES
dc.description.references Coronavirus: Europe Plans Full Border Closure in Virus Battlehttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51918596 es_ES
dc.description.references Italy Tightens Virus Lockdown after Worst Daily Death Tollhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/italy-is-now-world-s-deadliest-hotspot-in-the-virus-pandemic es_ES
dc.description.references China to Lift Lockdown on Wuhan, Ground Zero of Coronavirus Pandemichttps://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-lockdown-lifted-intl-hnk/index.html es_ES
dc.description.references Coronavirus: Strict New Curbs on Life in UK Announced by PMhttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52012432 es_ES
dc.description.references State of Alarm Thighteninghttps://www.boe.es/buscar/doc.php?id=BOE-A-2020-4166 es_ES
dc.description.references Coronavirus: Sharp increase in Deaths and Cases in Hubeihttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51482994 es_ES
dc.description.references Kampf, G., Todt, D., Pfaender, S., & Steinmann, E. (2020). Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents. Journal of Hospital Infection, 104(3), 246-251. doi:10.1016/j.jhin.2020.01.022 es_ES
dc.description.references Coronavirus Disease (COVID-2019) Situation Reportshttps://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ es_ES


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record