Forecasting energy demand in isolated rural communities: A comparison between deterministic and stochastic approaches

Abstract

[EN] Off-grid renewable energy grids will contribute to the achievement of SDG 7 on universal energy access, especially in off-grid communities. But the scarcity of resources for development aid requires very tight designs that minimise the cost of investment and operation of the mini-grid. To do this, the future energy demand of the community must be analysed very well, which is very difficult due to the lack of previous data. In the literature, two main approaches to analyse future energy demand, deterministic and stochastic methodologies. In this article, we compare both methodologies for a real case study in Honduras and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. Although the deterministic approach requires less information and less mathematical processing, it generates less accurate results. In contrast, the stochastic approach consumes more resources but gives more realistic results for the correct design of the mini-grid. In conclusion, the deterministic approach methods can be useful for the early stages of the project, when the investment is being sized. But for the advanced phases of the project, when the installation is being designed, the stochastic approach is recommended.