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Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months

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Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months

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dc.contributor.author Garrido, Jose M. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Martínez-Rodríguez, David es_ES
dc.contributor.author Rodriguez-Serrano, Fernando es_ES
dc.contributor.author Sferle, Sorina-M. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2022-02-21T19:03:36Z
dc.date.available 2022-02-21T19:03:36Z
dc.date.issued 2021-05-17 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/181024
dc.description.abstract [EN] Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital's departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital's resources in the future. Two main seasons, September-April (autumn-winter) and May-August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn-winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This research was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P and the European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014-2020. Files: GJIDI/2018/A/010 and GJIDI/2018/A/009 and the Ramon Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain (CIVP18A3920). es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher MDPI AG es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Mathematics es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject COVID-19 es_ES
dc.subject Mathematical model es_ES
dc.subject Transmission dynamics es_ES
dc.subject Vaccination expectations es_ES
dc.subject Hospital's resources es_ES
dc.subject COVID waves es_ES
dc.subject.classification MATEMATICA APLICADA es_ES
dc.title Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3390/math9101132 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/MTM2017-89664-P/ES/PROBLEMAS DINAMICOS CON INCERTIDUMBRE SIMULABLE: MODELIZACION MATEMATICA, ANALISIS, COMPUTACION Y APLICACIONES/ es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Fundación Ramón Areces//CIVP18A3920/ es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/GVA//GJIDI%2F2018%2FA%2F010/ es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EDUC.INVEST.CULT.DEP//GJIDI%2F2018%2FA%2F009//AYUDA GARANTIA JUVENIL GVA-ACTUALIZACIÓN DE UN SISTEMA CLIENTE-SERVIDOR DE COMPUTACIÓN DISTRIBUIDA/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar - Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinària es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Garrido, JM.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Rodriguez-Serrano, F.; Sferle, S.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2021). Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months. Mathematics. 9(10):1-21. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9101132 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.3390/math9101132 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 21 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 9 es_ES
dc.description.issue 10 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2227-7390 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\440221 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder GENERALITAT VALENCIANA es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Fundación Ramón Areces es_ES
dc.contributor.funder AGENCIA ESTATAL DE INVESTIGACION es_ES
dc.contributor.funder European Regional Development Fund es_ES
upv.costeAPC 1442,74 es_ES


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