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Simplified Mathematical Modeling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain

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Simplified Mathematical Modeling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain

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dc.contributor.author Marco-Franco, Julio Emilio es_ES
dc.contributor.author Pita-Barros, Pedro es_ES
dc.contributor.author González-De Julián, Silvia es_ES
dc.contributor.author Sabat, Iryna es_ES
dc.contributor.author Vivas-Consuelo, David es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2022-09-30T18:06:30Z
dc.date.available 2022-09-30T18:06:30Z
dc.date.issued 2021-03 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/186779
dc.description.abstract [EN] When exceptional situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic arise and reliable data is not available at decision-making times, estimation using mathematical models can provide a reasonable reckoning for health planning. We present a simplified model (static but with two-time references) for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccine. A simplified model provides quick assessment of the upper bound of cost-effectiveness, as we illustrated with data from Spain, and allows for easy comparisons between countries. It may also provide useful comparisons among different vaccines at the marketplace, from the perspective of the buyer. From analysis of this information, key epidemiological figures, and costs of the disease for Spain have been estimated, based on mortality. The fatality value is a robust data that can alternatively be obtained from death registers, funeral homes, cemeteries, and crematoria. Our model estimates the cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to be 5,132 € (4,926 ¿ 5,276) as of 17 February 2021, based on the following assumptions/inputs: an estimated cost of 30 euros per dose (plus transport, storing, and administration), two doses per person, efficacy of 70% and coverage of 70% of the population. Even considering the possibility of some bias, this simplified model provides confirmation that vaccination against COVID-19 is highly cost-effective. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher MDPI AG es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Mathematics es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject COVID-19 vaccination es_ES
dc.subject Mathematical modelling es_ES
dc.subject Health economics modelling es_ES
dc.subject Best Adjustment of Related Values (BARV) es_ES
dc.subject Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) es_ES
dc.subject Coronavirus es_ES
dc.subject Healthcare expenditures es_ES
dc.subject Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) es_ES
dc.subject Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) es_ES
dc.subject Collective choice es_ES
dc.subject Discount rate es_ES
dc.subject.classification ECONOMIA FINANCIERA Y CONTABILIDAD es_ES
dc.subject.classification ECONOMIA APLICADA es_ES
dc.title Simplified Mathematical Modeling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3390/math9050566 es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Centro de Investigación de Ingeniería Económica - Centre d'Investigació d'Enginyeria Econòmica es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Economía y Ciencias Sociales - Departament d'Economia i Ciències Socials es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Marco-Franco, JE.; Pita-Barros, P.; González-De Julián, S.; Sabat, I.; Vivas-Consuelo, D. (2021). Simplified Mathematical Modeling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain. Mathematics. 9(5):1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9050566 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.3390/math9050566 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 15 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 9 es_ES
dc.description.issue 5 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2227-7390 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\430100 es_ES
dc.subject.ods 03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades es_ES
upv.costeAPC 1586,02 es_ES


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