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Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

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Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

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dc.contributor.author López, J. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Francés, F. es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2014-12-10T18:40:00Z
dc.date.available 2014-12-10T18:40:00Z
dc.date.issued 2013-08
dc.identifier.issn 1027-5606
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/45322
dc.description.abstract Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been supported by CONACYT of Mexico and the Spanish research projects FLOODMED (CGL2008-06474-C02-02/BTE) and SCARCE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2009-00065). We acknowledge D. M. Stasinopoulos, R. A. Rigby and P. Akanziliotou for making the GAMLSS package freely available in R. We would also like to thank J. A. Smith and G. Villarini for the fruitful meetings held with the second author during his stay at Princeton University and to thank J. D. Salas and G. Benito for their interesting comments and detailed review of this paper. en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher European Geosciences Union (EGU) es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Hydrology and Earth System Sciences es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//CGL2008-06474-C02-02/ES/SIMULACION Y ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA DE LAS CRECIDAS CON ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIOS CLIMATICO Y MEDIOAMBIENTALES EN CUENCAS MEDITERRANEAS/ / es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//CSD2009-00065/ES/Evaluación y predicción de los efectos del cambio global en la cantidad y la calidad del agua en ríos ibéricos/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation López, J.; Francés, F. (2013). Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 17:3189-3203. doi:10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 3189 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 3203 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 17 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 263875
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación es_ES
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