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Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

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Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

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dc.contributor.author Medici, Chiara es_ES
dc.contributor.author Wade, A. J. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Francés, F. es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2015-02-03T09:33:59Z
dc.date.available 2015-02-03T09:33:59Z
dc.date.issued 2012-05-29
dc.identifier.issn 0022-1694
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/46661
dc.description.abstract [EN] The aim of this study was, within a sensitivity analysis framework, to determine if additional model complexity gives a better capability to model the hydrology and nitrogen dynamics of a small Mediterranean forested catchment or if the additional parameters cause over-fitting. Three nitrogen-models of varying hydrological complexity were considered. For each model, general sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) were applied, each based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results highlighted the most complex structure as the most appropriate, providing the best representation of the non-linear patterns observed in the flow and streamwater nitrate concentrations between 1999 and 2002. Its 5% and 95% GLUE bounds, obtained considering a multi-objective approach, provide the narrowest band for streamwater nitrogen, which suggests increased model robustness, though all models exhibit periods of inconsistent good and poor fits between simulated outcomes and observed data. The results confirm the importance of the riparian zone in controlling the short-term (daily) streamwater nitrogen dynamics in this catchment but not the overall flux of nitrogen from the catchment. It was also shown that as the complexity of a hydrological model increases over-parameterisation occurs, but the converse is true for a water quality model where additional process representation leads to additional acceptable model simulations. Water quality data help constrain the hydrological representation in process-based models. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This study was supported by a Formacion de Personal Investigador (FPI) grant and funds provided by the Generalitat Valenciana, Conselleria d'Educacio and partially supported by the research projects SCARCE-CONSOLIDER (Contract Number CSD2009-00065), Euro-limpacs (Contract Number 505540) and REFRESH (244121) projects.
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation EU/FP6/Euro-limpacs/505540 es_ES
dc.relation info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//CSD2009-00065/ES/Evaluación y predicción de los efectos del cambio global en la cantidad y la calidad del agua en ríos ibéricos/ es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Hydrology es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject General Sensitivity Analysis es_ES
dc.subject GLUE es_ES
dc.subject Nitrogen es_ES
dc.subject Mediterranean Forest es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness? es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.047
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/244121/EU/Adaptive Strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems/
dc.rights.accessRights Cerrado es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente - Institut Universitari d'Enginyeria de l'Aigua i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Medici, C.; Wade, AJ.; Francés, F. (2012). Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?. Journal of Hydrology. 440:1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.047 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.047 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 13 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 440 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 243132
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
dc.contributor.funder European Commission


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