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Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral-Salinas aquifer, SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate?

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Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral-Salinas aquifer, SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate?

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dc.contributor.author Pulido Velázquez, David es_ES
dc.contributor.author García-Arostegui, J.L. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Molina González, José Luis es_ES
dc.contributor.author Pulido-Velazquez, M. es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2015-05-26T12:56:28Z
dc.date.available 2015-05-26T12:56:28Z
dc.date.issued 2015-03-15
dc.identifier.issn 0885-6087
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/50792
dc.description.abstract The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi-arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral-Salinas aquifer, located in a semi-arid zone of south-east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi-objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been developed under the framework of the CGL-2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02 research projects, financed by the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 (Ministry of Science and Innovation, Spain). The study was also partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project GENESIS (226536) on groundwater systems. We also thank the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES Projects, as some public data of this project have been applied. en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Wiley es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Hydrological Processes es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Climate change es_ES
dc.subject Groundwater resources es_ES
dc.subject Groundwater recharge es_ES
dc.subject Future scenarios es_ES
dc.subject Semi-arid regions es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral-Salinas aquifer, SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate? es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1002/hyp.10191
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226536/EU/Groundwater and dependent Ecosystems: NEw Scientific basIS on climate change and land-use impacts for the update of the EU Groundwater Directive/ en_EN
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Pulido Velázquez, D.; García-Arostegui, J.; Molina González, JL.; Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2015). Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral-Salinas aquifer, SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate?. Hydrological Processes. 29(6):828-844. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10191 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10191 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 828 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 844 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 29 es_ES
dc.description.issue 6 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 275865
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