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Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach

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Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach

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Nombre: E. Sánchez;Villan ...
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dc.contributor.author Sánchez, Emilio es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto es_ES
dc.contributor.author Santonja, Francisco José es_ES
dc.contributor.author Rubio, María es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2016-02-17T15:00:11Z
dc.date.available 2016-02-17T15:00:11Z
dc.date.issued 2011-04
dc.identifier.issn 0968-7637
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/60963
dc.description This is an author's accepted manuscript of an article published in “Drugs: Education, Prevention, and Policy "; Volume 18, Issue 2, 2011; copyright Taylor & Francis; available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/09687630903443299 es_ES
dc.description.abstract In this article, we analyse the evolution of cocaine consumption in Spain and we predict consumption trends over the next few years. Additionally, we simulate some scenarios which aim to reduce cocaine consumption in the future (sensitivity analysis). Assuming cocaine dependency is a socially transmitted epidemic disease, this leads us to propose an epidemiological-type mathematical model to study consumption evolution. Model sensitivity analysis allows us to design strategies and analyse their effects on cocaine consumption. The model predicts that 3.5% of the Spanish population will be habitual cocaine consumers by 2015. The simulations carried out suggest that cocaine consumption prevention strategies are the best policy to reduce the habitual consumer population. In this article, we show that epidemiological-type mathematical models can be a useful tool in the analysis of the repercussion of health policy proposals in the short-time future. © 2011 Informa UK Ltd. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Taylor & Francis: STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Drugs: Education, Prevention, and Policy es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject.classification MATEMATICA APLICADA es_ES
dc.title Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3109/09687630903443299
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Sánchez, E.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Santonja, FJ.; Rubio, M. (2011). Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach. Drugs: Education, Prevention, and Policy. 18(2):108-115. doi:10.3109/09687630903443299 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/09687630903443299 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 108 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 115 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 18 es_ES
dc.description.issue 2 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 39741 es_ES
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