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Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

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Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

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dc.contributor.author Cervelló Royo, Roberto Elías es_ES
dc.contributor.author Cortés, J.-C. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Sánchez Sánchez, A. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Santonja, F. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2016-04-14T14:31:28Z
dc.date.available 2016-04-14T14:31:28Z
dc.date.issued 2013
dc.identifier.issn 1085-3375
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/62572
dc.description Copyright © 2013 R. Cervelló-Royo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. es_ES
dc.description.abstract Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS) represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been partially supported by the Spanish M.C.Y.T. Grants MTM2009-08587 as well as the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia Grant PAID06-11 (ref. 2070). en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Hindawi Publishing Corporation es_ES
dc.relation Spanish M.C.Y.T. Grants MTM2009-08587 es_ES
dc.relation Universitat Politecnica de Valencia Grant PAID06-11 (ref. 2070) es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Abstract and Applied Analysis es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject.classification MATEMATICA APLICADA es_ES
dc.subject.classification ECONOMIA FINANCIERA Y CONTABILIDAD es_ES
dc.title Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1155/2013/264657
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Economía y Ciencias Sociales - Departament d'Economia i Ciències Socials es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Cervelló Royo, RE.; Cortés, J.; Sánchez Sánchez, A.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2013). Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model. Abstract and Applied Analysis. 2013:1-11. doi:10.1155/2013/264657 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod Senia es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/264657 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 11 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 2013 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 254327 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 1687-0409


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