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A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study

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A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study

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dc.contributor.author Cortés, J.-C. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Santonja, F. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Tarazona Tornero, Ana Celia es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Oller, Francisco Javier es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2016-05-05T15:41:27Z
dc.date.available 2016-05-05T15:41:27Z
dc.date.issued 2015-08-01
dc.identifier.issn 0096-3003
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/63712
dc.description.abstract In this paper, a computational technique to deal with uncertainty in dynamic continuous models in Social Sciences is presented.Considering data from surveys,the method consists of determining the probability distribution of the survey output and this allows to sample data and fit the model to the sampled data using a goodness-of-fit criterion based the χ2-test. Taking the fitted parameters that were not rejected by the χ2-test, substituting them into the model and computing their outputs, 95% confidence intervals in each time instant capturing the uncertainty of the survey data (probabilistic estimation) is built. Using the same set of obtained model parameters, a prediction over the next few years with 95% confidence intervals (probabilistic prediction) is also provided. This technique is applied to a dynamic social model describing the evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards the revolutionary organization ETA. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been partially supported by the Spanish M.C.Y.T. grant MTM2013-41765-P. en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation Spanish M.C.Y.T. : MTM2013-41765-P es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Applied Mathematics and Computation es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Social dynamic models es_ES
dc.subject Probabilistic estimation es_ES
dc.subject Probabilistic prediction es_ES
dc.subject Attitude dynamics es_ES
dc.subject.classification MATEMATICA APLICADA es_ES
dc.title A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Cortés, J.; Santonja, F.; Tarazona Tornero, AC.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Villanueva Oller, FJ. (2015). A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study. Applied Mathematics and Computation. 264:13-20. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 13 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 20 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 264 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 299812 es_ES


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