A mathematical model for the sustainability of the use of cross-laminated timber in the construction industry : the case of Spain

Abstract

In recent years, computerized mathematical modelling has enabled construction-related problems to be resolved and predictions to be made regarding the behaviours of buildings and their environments in a more rigorous fashion than was the case with the deterministic models used until now. This model enables the analysis of a simulation of the sustainability of the use of timber as a major structural component in construction. Thus, using a unique model, which could be adapted to the particular characteristics of any country, the viability of a sustainable use of woodland can be verified, with extraction rates below 100%, in order to supply an industry which accounts for a high percentage of the carbon dioxide emissions released into the atmosphere. In the specific case of Spain, the demographic forecasts for the next 40 years were used as the basis on which to establish the operational period of the model. For this period, the different variables involved in the natural production of wood were compared, along with felling strategies. The results point to sustainable scenarios for the most part during the target period in Spain, with the most unfavourable combinations of the variables preventing the sustainability of the use of timber from being achieved.