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Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

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Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

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dc.contributor.author Machado, M.J. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Botero, B.A. es_ES
dc.contributor.author López, J. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Francés, F. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Díez-Herrero, A. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Benito, G. es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2016-11-29T10:55:30Z
dc.date.available 2016-11-29T10:55:30Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.issn 1027-5606
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/74745
dc.description.abstract [EN] Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913–2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on “generalized additive models for location, scale and shape” (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency analysis using documentary data (plus gauged records) improved the estimates of the probabilities of rare floods (return intervals of 100 yr and higher). Under nonstationary modelling flood occurrence associated with an exceedance probability of 0.01 (i.e. return period of 100 yr) has changed over the last 500 yr due to decadal and multidecadal variability of the NAO. Yet, frequency analysis under stationary models was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects FLOODMED (CGL2008-06474-C02/BTE), SCARCE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2009-00065), CLARIES (CGL2011-29176) and PALEOMED (CGL2014-58127-C3-1-R), and by the CSIC PIE intramural project (201430E003). en_EN
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher European Geosciences Union (EGU) es_ES
dc.relation MINECO/FLOODMED/CGL2008-06474-C02/BTE es_ES
dc.relation MINECO/SCARCE-CONSOLIDER/CSD2009-00065 es_ES
dc.relation MINECO/CLAIRES/CGL2011-29176
dc.relation MINECO/PALEOMED/CGL2014-58127-C3-1-R
dc.relation CSIC/PIE intramural project/201430E003
dc.relation.ispartof Hydrology and Earth System Sciences es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos - Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyers de Camins, Canals i Ports es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Machado, M.; Botero, B.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G. (2015). Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 19(6):2561-2576. doi:10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod Senia es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 2561 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 2576 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 19 es_ES
dc.description.issue 6 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 307640 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)
dc.contributor.funder Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)


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