Modelling Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: the Jucar Basin, Spain

Abstract

This paper analyses all current available simulated climate scenarios, proposed by the Spanish Agency of Meteorology (AEMET), for the period 2010-2040 on the geographic area covered by the Jucar River Basin District (JB), located in eastern Spain. This is done through the validation of these scenarios using historical records, and by assessing the impact on water resources for the next 30 years by means of a hydrological model. By taking the period 1960-90 as control period, a careful comparison of its historical records against AEMET scenarios is performed. Although temperature records are properly honoured, precipitations are widely underestimated in a range going from 8 % to 29 %. This wide variability range observed in the control period is also found in precipitation scenarios for 2010-40. The impact on water resources shows a great degree of dispersion, ranging from -13.45 to 18.1% with a mean value of -2.13%.