Acedo Rodríguez, L.; Moraño Fernández, JA.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Villanueva Oller, FJ.; Díez Domingo, J. (2011). Using random networks to study the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Spanish region of Valencia. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 54(7-8):1650-1654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.11.068
Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://hdl.handle.net/10251/83130
Title:
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Using random networks to study the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Spanish region of Valencia
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Author:
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Acedo Rodríguez, Luis
Moraño Fernández, José Antonio
Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
Villanueva Oller, Francisco Javier
Díez Domingo, Javier
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UPV Unit:
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Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar - Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinària
Universitat Politècnica de València. Facultad de Administración y Dirección de Empresas - Facultat d'Administració i Direcció d'Empreses
Universitat Politècnica de València. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería del Diseño - Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyeria del Disseny
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Issued date:
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Abstract:
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[EN] Seasonal fluctuations in the incidence of several respiratory infections are a feature of epidemiological surveys all around the world. This phenomenon is characteristic of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus ...[+]
[EN] Seasonal fluctuations in the incidence of several respiratory infections are a feature of epidemiological surveys all around the world. This phenomenon is characteristic of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus pandemics. However, the explanation of the seasonal outbreaks of these diseases remains poorly understood. Many statistical studies have been carried out in order to provide a correlation of the outbreaks with climatic or social factors without achieving a definitive conclusion. Here we show that, in a random social network, self-sustained seasonal epidemics emerge as a process modulated by the infection probability and the immunity period after recovering from the infection. This is a purely endogenous phenomenon that does not require any exogenous forcing. Assuming that this is the dominant mechanism for seasonal epidemics, many implications for public health policies for infectious respiratory diseases could be drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Subjects:
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Random networks
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RSV epidemic
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Social networks
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Dominant mechanism
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Public health policies
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Random network
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Respiratory syncytial virus
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Seasonal fluctuations
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Social factor
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Statistical study
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Valencia
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Epidemiology
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Viruses
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Computer viruses
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Copyrigths:
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Reserva de todos los derechos
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Source:
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Mathematical and Computer Modelling. (issn:
0895-7177
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DOI:
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10.1016/j.mcm.2010.11.068
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Publisher:
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Elsevier
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Publisher version:
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http://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.11.068
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Project ID:
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info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/UPV//PAID-06-09-2588/
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Thanks:
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Supported by a grant from the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia PAID-06-09 ref: 2588.
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Type:
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Artículo
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