MODEL ESTIMATES FOR GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION FROM NATIONAL TRAVELS OF TRANSPORT OF AIR CARGO BETWEEN MAJOR CITIES IN COLOMBIA

Abstract

[EN] This paper presents models of generation, extraction and distribution of travel for air cargo between the main cities of Colombia. To develop the work we use information of cargo movement in Colombia during 2012, from then, we make the performance analysis and modeling to estimate future behavior considering possible scenarios. The generation model analyzed statistical variables such as population, distance between the main cities of Colombia, the gross domestic product of the cities, indicators of industrial density, the level of unemployment, among other characteristics to determine their influence on transport domestic air cargo.

For travel distribution model, including the gravitational, allowed to predict the behavior of air freight, under the hypothetical situation that the Colombian Caribbean coast will have a joint cargo airport that meets the needs of Barranquilla, Santa Marta and Cartagena. The results showed that despite the geographical situation of the cities, this is feasible, given that centralize the management of the three coastal cities in a specialized cargo airport could reduce generalized costs and encourage greater trade with the rest of the cities of Colombia, as demonstrated in the model.