Billari, F.; D'amuri, F.; Marcucci, J. (2016). Forecasting Births Using Google. En CARMA 2016: 1st International Conference on Advanced Research Methods in Analytics. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 119-119. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2016.2015.4301
Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://hdl.handle.net/10251/95605
Title:
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Forecasting Births Using Google
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Author:
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Billari, Francesco
D'Amuri, Francesco
Marcucci, Juri
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Issued date:
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Abstract:
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[EN] Monitoring fertility change is particularly important for policy and planning
purposes. New data may help us in this monitoring. We propose a new
leading indicator based on Google web-searches. We then test its ...[+]
[EN] Monitoring fertility change is particularly important for policy and planning
purposes. New data may help us in this monitoring. We propose a new
leading indicator based on Google web-searches. We then test its predictive
power using US data. In a deep out-of sample comparison we show that
popular time series specifications augmented with web-search-related data
improve their forecasting performance at forecast horizons of 6 to 24 months.
The superior performance of these augmented models is confirmed by formal
tests of equal forecast accuracy. Moreover, our results survive a falsification
test and are confirmed also when a forecast horse race is conducted using
different out-of-sample tests, and at the state rather than at the federal level.
Conditioning on the same information set, the forecast error of our best
model for predicting 2009 births is 35% lower than the Census bureau
projections. Our findings indicate the potential use of Googe web-searches in
monitoring fertility change and in informing fertility forecasts.
[-]
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Subjects:
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web data
,
internet data
,
big data
,
qca
,
pls
,
sem
,
conference
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Copyrigths:
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Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd)
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ISBN:
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9788490484623
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Source:
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CARMA 2016: 1st International Conference on Advanced Research Methods in Analytics.
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DOI:
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10.4995/CARMA2016.2015.4301
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Publisher:
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Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València
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Publisher version:
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http://ocs.editorial.upv.es/index.php/CARMA/CARMA2016/paper/view/4301
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Conference name:
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CARMA 2016 - 1st International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics
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Conference place:
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Valencia, Spain
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Conference date:
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July 06-07,2016
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Description:
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Abstract de la ponencia
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Type:
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Capítulo de libro
Comunicación en congreso
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