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Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain)

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Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain)

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dc.contributor.author Haro Monteagudo, David es_ES
dc.contributor.author Solera Solera, Abel es_ES
dc.contributor.author Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2018-02-14T15:05:59Z
dc.date.available 2018-02-14T15:05:59Z
dc.date.issued 2017 es_ES
dc.identifier.issn 0022-1694 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/97905
dc.description.abstract [EN] Droughts are a major threat to water resources systems management. Timely anticipation results crucial to defining strategies and measures to minimise their effects. Water managers make use of monitoring systems in order to characterise and assess drought risk by means of indices and indicators. However, there are few systems currently in operation that are capable of providing early warning with regard to the occurrence of a drought episode. This paper proposes a novel methodology to support and complement drought monitoring and early warning in regulated water resources systems. It is based in the combined use of two models, a water resources optimization model and a stochastic streamflow generation model, to generate a series of results that allow evaluating the future state of the system. The results for the period 1998 2009 in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) show that accounting for scenario change risk can be beneficial for basin managers by providing them with information on the current and future drought situation at any given moment. Our results show that the combination of scenario change probabilities with the current drought monitoring system can represent a major advance towards improved drought management in the future, and add a significant value to the existing national State Index (SI) approach for early warning purposes. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity (CGL2009-11798, CGL2012-34978, and CSD2009-00065), and the European Commission FP7 programme (FP7-ENV-2011-282769 and FP7-ENV-2012-308438).
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation MINECO/CSD2009-00065 es_ES
dc.relation MECD/CGL2009-11798 es_ES
dc.relation MINECO/CGL2012-34978 es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Hydrology es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd) es_ES
dc.subject Monitoring es_ES
dc.subject Early warning system es_ES
dc.subject Optimisation modelling es_ES
dc.subject Water resources systems analysis es_ES
dc.subject Aquatool es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.subject.classification MECANICA DE FLUIDOS es_ES
dc.title Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain) es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282769/EU es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308438/EU es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.date.embargoEndDate 2019-06-30 es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Haro Monteagudo, D.; Solera Solera, A.; Andreu Álvarez, J. (2017). Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Journal of Hydrology. 544:36-45. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 36 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 45 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 544 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\325826 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Educación es_ES
dc.contributor.funder European Commission es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad es_ES


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