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dc.contributor.author | Haro Monteagudo, David![]() |
es_ES |
dc.contributor.author | Solera Solera, Abel![]() |
es_ES |
dc.contributor.author | Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín![]() |
es_ES |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-02-14T15:05:59Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-02-14T15:05:59Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | es_ES |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-1694 | es_ES |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10251/97905 | |
dc.description.abstract | [EN] Droughts are a major threat to water resources systems management. Timely anticipation results crucial to defining strategies and measures to minimise their effects. Water managers make use of monitoring systems in order to characterise and assess drought risk by means of indices and indicators. However, there are few systems currently in operation that are capable of providing early warning with regard to the occurrence of a drought episode. This paper proposes a novel methodology to support and complement drought monitoring and early warning in regulated water resources systems. It is based in the combined use of two models, a water resources optimization model and a stochastic streamflow generation model, to generate a series of results that allow evaluating the future state of the system. The results for the period 1998 2009 in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) show that accounting for scenario change risk can be beneficial for basin managers by providing them with information on the current and future drought situation at any given moment. Our results show that the combination of scenario change probabilities with the current drought monitoring system can represent a major advance towards improved drought management in the future, and add a significant value to the existing national State Index (SI) approach for early warning purposes. | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity (CGL2009-11798, CGL2012-34978, and CSD2009-00065), and the European Commission FP7 programme (FP7-ENV-2011-282769 and FP7-ENV-2012-308438). | |
dc.language | Inglés | es_ES |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | es_ES |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Hydrology | es_ES |
dc.rights | Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd) | es_ES |
dc.subject | Monitoring | es_ES |
dc.subject | Early warning system | es_ES |
dc.subject | Optimisation modelling | es_ES |
dc.subject | Water resources systems analysis | es_ES |
dc.subject | Aquatool | es_ES |
dc.subject.classification | INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA | es_ES |
dc.subject.classification | MECANICA DE FLUIDOS | es_ES |
dc.title | Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain) | es_ES |
dc.type | Artículo | es_ES |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022 | es_ES |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282769/EU/Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing/ | es_ES |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//CSD2009-00065/ES/Evaluación y predicción de los efectos del cambio global en la cantidad y la calidad del agua en ríos ibéricos/ | es_ES |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308438/EU/Enhancing risk management partnerships for catastrophic natural disasters in Europe/ | es_ES |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//CGL2009-11798/ES/Integración de metodologías multidisciplinares en la planificación hidrológica dentro del ámbito de la Directiva Marco Europea en política de aguas/ | es_ES |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2012-34978/ES/NUEVAS TECNICAS PARA LA PLANIFICACION, GESTION Y OPTIMIZACION DE RECURSOS HIDRICOS/ | es_ES |
dc.rights.accessRights | Abierto | es_ES |
dc.date.embargoEndDate | 2019-06-30 | es_ES |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient | es_ES |
dc.description.bibliographicCitation | Haro Monteagudo, D.; Solera Solera, A.; Andreu Álvarez, J. (2017). Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Journal of Hydrology. 544:36-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022 | es_ES |
dc.description.accrualMethod | S | es_ES |
dc.relation.publisherversion | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022 | es_ES |
dc.description.upvformatpinicio | 36 | es_ES |
dc.description.upvformatpfin | 45 | es_ES |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es_ES |
dc.description.volume | 544 | es_ES |
dc.relation.pasarela | S\325826 | es_ES |
dc.contributor.funder | Ministerio de Educación | es_ES |
dc.contributor.funder | European Commission | es_ES |
dc.contributor.funder | Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | es_ES |
dc.contributor.funder | Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación |