Multi-model approach using GIS-AHP, regional FDC modelling and AquaCrop-OS to support irrigation and enhance food security in Colombia

[EN] In Colombia, 37.8% of land is agriculturally suitable, yet only 6% is irrigated. The Department of Cesar (CD) is experiencing 41.1% household food insecurity. This study assesses irrigated agriculture feasibility in CD by integrating land suitability, water availability, and crop demand under dry, normal, and wet conditions. A geographic information system (GIS)-based methodology combined: (1) land suitability via analytic hierarchy process (AHP), classifying 17.7% as highly suitable and 76.6% as moderately suitable; (2) water availability using the flow duration curve¿Terán (FDC-Terán) model, where the 90th percentile low flow (Q90) ranged spatially from 0.01 to 0.61 L s¿1 ha¿1; and (3) irrigation demand simulation using AquaCrop for staple crops (maize, beans, rice, cassava). Demand varied from 0.2¿1.9 L s¿1 ha¿1 (normal/wet years) to 2.9 L s¿1 ha¿1 (dry years). Just 30¿56% of cultivable land (222 837 ha) is irrigable due to water scarcity, proving its critical role in irrigation planning.