Defly Compass Trend Analysis Methodology: Quantifying Trend Detection to Improve Foresight in Strategic Decision Making

Abstract

[EN] We present a new method for trend analysis that integrates traditional foresight techniques with advanced data processing and artificial intelligence. It addresses the challenge of analyzing large volumes of information while preserving expert insight. The hybrid methodology combines computational analysis with expert validation across four phases: literature review, information systematization, trend identification, and analysis. Tools like Voyant Tools 2.6.18 and NotebookLMare used for semantic and statistical exploration. Among them, we highlight the use of the Defly Compass tool, a natural language processing tool based on semantic projections and developed by our team. The method produces mixed results, including both conceptual conclusions and quantifiable, reproducible outcomes adaptable to diverse contexts. Comparative case studies in agriculture, education, and public health identified key patterns within and across sectors. Cross-domain validation revealed universal trends such as digital infrastructure, data integration, and equity. Designed for accessibility, the method enables small, non-specialized teams to combine computational tools with expert knowledge for strategic decision making in complex environments.