Solar-Thermal power generation in Mexico- techno-economic potential assessment

Abstract

Consulta en la Biblioteca ETSI Industriales (Riunet)

[EN] This study aims to estimate the technical and economic potential of solar-thermal power in Mexico. For its purpose, a novel approach is applied in the technical assessment considering the influence of the direct normal irradiance on the capacity factor and the power density of a parabolic trough power plant equipped with 6 hours of storage and a solar multiple of 2. The results of the assessment reveal that three out of every four municipalities in the country are suitable for the deployment of a solarthermal power plant considering technical restrictions. The areas with highest technical potential for the technology are located in the north of the country. The total technical potential in Mexico is estimated in 47,561 GW and 158,682 TWh/year. For the economic potential assessment, the levelized cost of energy is estimated proportional to that of a reference plant and the difference in direct normal irradiance between the location of the reference and the location studied. With this new simple approach, the multiple factors that influence the cost of a solar-thermal power plant, which are usually local dependent and hard to evaluate, are overlooked, focusing only on one of the factors, the annual electricity generation, which highly depends on the direct normal irradiance value. The results of the economic potential reveal areas accounting for 3.8% of the country’s total extension where the LCOE generated would be under 0.15 US$/kWh, all located in the north of the country and within 36 municipalities. In total, up to 9,516 plants could be installed in Mexico in the more favorable areas, resulting in a total capacity of 2,379 GW which could generate around to 9,215 TWh of electricity per year. Considering only the potential of the municipality where the lowest mean LCOE was found, Santa Cruz (0.1454 $US/kWh), up to 115 plants like the reference could be deployed resulting in an increased capacity of 28,750 MW which could generate up to 113 TWh per year with an estimated cost of $16,406 million. The potential values of power and energy only in Santa Cruz equal to almost 45% of the effective generation capacity of the country at the end of 2012 (64,000 MW) and about 41% of the electricity produced the same year (276 TWh), revealing the large potential of solar-thermal power in Mexico.