Observed (1979-2024) and Projected (2030) Climate Trends in Relation to Farmers' Perceptions in Coffee Cooperatives of Northern Peru

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dc.contributor.authorCampos Trigoso, Jonathan Albertoes_ES
dc.contributor.authorRituay, Pabloes_ES
dc.contributor.authorBustos Chavez, Meliza del Pilares_ES
dc.contributor.authorRamos-Sandoval, Rosmeryes_ES
dc.contributor.authorGuadalupe, Grobert A.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorGrandez-Yoplac, Dorila E.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Ligiaes_ES
dc.contributor.funderUniversidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonases_ES
dc.contributor.funderConsejo Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Tecnológica, Perúes_ES
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-03T08:06:43Z
dc.date.available2026-03-03T08:06:43Z
dc.date.issued2025-12-26es_ES
dc.description.abstract[EN] Climate change is increasingly threatening the sustainability of coffee farming in northern Peru, particularly in the Amazonas region, where coffee cooperatives serve as vital socioeconomic hubs for thousands of families. This study analyzed historical climate data from 1979 to 2024 to project trends up to 2030, integrating local perceptions from coffee producers to identify trends, anomalies, and future scenarios within four coffee cooperatives in northern Peru. We examined variables such as precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and wind speed using nonparametric statistical analyses and SARIMA time-series models. The findings indicate a steady increase in maximum and average temperatures, alongside greater irregularity in precipitation. Specifically, the Bagua Grande and COOPARM cooperatives are experiencing precipitation deficits, while the Alta Monta & ntilde;a and Ocumal cooperatives are facing excess rainfall. Additionally, we project an increase in evapotranspiration by 2030. Surveys conducted with coffee growers reveal a consensus regarding irregular rainfall patterns; however, there is less recognition of the rising temperature trends. This discrepancy emphasizes the importance of combining scientific data with local knowledge to develop more effective adaptation strategies at the cooperative level. We conclude that enhancing climate training and cooperative management is essential for improving the resilience of regional coffee farming.en_EN
dc.description.accrualMethodSes_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitationCampos Trigoso, JA.; Rituay, P.; Bustos Chavez, MDP.; Ramos-Sandoval, R.; Guadalupe, GA.; Grandez-Yoplac, DE.; Garcia, L. (2025). Observed (1979-2024) and Projected (2030) Climate Trends in Relation to Farmers' Perceptions in Coffee Cooperatives of Northern Peru. Agriculture. 16(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16010057es_ES
dc.description.issue1es_ES
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dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by PROCIENCIA, grant number CONTRATO N degrees PE501088206-2024-PROCIENCIA (CLIMCAFE). The APC was funded by Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodriguez de Mendoza de Amazonas.es_ES
dc.description.volume16es_ES
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/agriculture16010057es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn2077-0472es_ES
dc.identifier.urihttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/233094
dc.languageIngléses_ES
dc.publisherMDPI AGes_ES
dc.relation.ispartofAgriculturees_ES
dc.relation.pasarelaS\574847es_ES
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/CONCYTEC//PE501088206-2024-PROCIENCIA/es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16010057es_ES
dc.rightsReconocimiento (by)es_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsAbiertoes_ES
dc.subjectAgribusinesses_ES
dc.subjectAgricultural adaptationes_ES
dc.subjectCoffea arabicaes_ES
dc.subjectClimate changees_ES
dc.subjectClimate modeles_ES
dc.titleObserved (1979-2024) and Projected (2030) Climate Trends in Relation to Farmers' Perceptions in Coffee Cooperatives of Northern Perues_ES
dc.typeArtículoes_ES
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiones_ES
dspace.entity.typePublicationes_ES
upv.uuide1d089f8-c408-4901-80da-d3252ed842bees_ES

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