Computational uncertainty quantification for random time-discrete epidemiological models using adaptive gPC

Abstract

[EN] Population dynamics models consisting of nonlinear difference equations allow us to get a better understanding of the processes involved in epidemiology. Usually, these mathematical models are studied under a deterministic approach. However, in order to take into account the uncertainties associated with the measurements of the model input parameters, a more realistic approach would be to consider these inputs as random variables. In this paper, we study the random time-discrete epidemiological models SIS, SIR, SIRS, and SEIR using a powerful unified approach based upon the so-called adaptive generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) technique. The solution to these random difference equations is a stochastic process in discrete time, which represents the number of susceptible, infected, recovered, etc individuals at each time step. We show, via numerical experiments, how adaptive gPC permits quantifying the uncertainty for the solution stochastic process of the aforementioned random time-discrete epidemiological model and obtaining accurate results at a cheap computational expense. We also highlight how adaptive gPC can be applied in practice, by means of an example using real data.