Risk and reliability analysis based on business jets accidents

Abstract

[EN] Despite being probably the safest transport, part of the society still having much more respect for a flight than for doing the same travel by car or another ground means of transport. Largely because of it, does not result difficult to hear numbers and data related with the security in the sector of commercial aviation; data which places it in the first position of the safest means of transport with pronounce distance from the others. Definitely, it is a sector on which risk analysis and safety studies are constantly carried out with the aim of minimizing the risk factors that may cause incidents in their aircraft, at least those factors that are within the reach of manufacturers, airlines and therest of the entities that make up this thunderingsector.Without abandon the sector of aviation, it is less frequent to find consistent data about the risk of flight by everything that is not a commercial airplane. Perhaps because it is a sector reservedalmost exclusively to people with huge economic or governmental power or basically because private aviation does not displace above our heads more than hundredsof thousands of people each day.That is why, while many of us remember impressive Boeing 747accidents which took the lives of hundreds of people, we only bear in mind accidents of private jets in which sports or politics celebrities was involved.Keeping this in mind, this paper will delve into private aviation, addressing the concept of private jet and analysing the risk and reliability of three of the most representative aircraft of three of thelargest manufacturersof private aircrafts in the world.Henceits reliability will be studied within a large cog made up of the man-technology-environment (M-T-E) set, one of the pillars of the risk analysis carried outfor sectors that are responsible for the lives of many people.

[ES] El objetivo principal del proyecto es analizar la seguridad en el sector de la aviación privada.

Con esta finalidad se han elegido tres aviones seleccionados de entre tres de los mayores fabricantes del sector : Cessna (TEXTRON), Gulfstream y Dassault).

Específicamente, se han seleccionado jets que comenzaron a fabricarse antes de los años 80 para tener datos suficientes con los que hacer un análisis confiable. Además, solo se han considerado aviones de hasta 19 pasajeros con motor a reacción. Concretamente los aviones seleccionados son el Cessna Citation II, el Gulfstream G-1159 y el Dassault Falcon 20.

El estudio comenzará con un enfoque general del riesgo en la aviación y ahondará en el sector de la aviación privada y su comparación con el resto de sectores. Posteriormente abordará la comparación de las características de los distintos jets y expondrá las incidencias sufridas por cada uno de los modelos, basando el análisis en las distinta naturaleza de las incidencias, así como en la antigüedad y prestaciones de cada uno de las aeronaves. Finalmente, la parte capital del proyecto consistirá en el estudio probabilístico de las incidencias/accidentes, considerando en este distintas variables y examinando la influencia de las mismas en la seguridad del sector. Para ello se aplicarán los conocimientos sobre el análisis de riesgo en la aviación adquiridos en la movilidad.