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Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

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Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

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dc.contributor.author Suárez-Almiñana, Sara es_ES
dc.contributor.author Solera Solera, Abel es_ES
dc.contributor.author Madrigal, Jaime es_ES
dc.contributor.author Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín es_ES
dc.contributor.author Paredes Arquiola, Javier es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-13T04:32:06Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-13T04:32:06Z
dc.date.issued 2020-07-14 es_ES
dc.identifier.issn 1027-5606 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/161210
dc.description.abstract [EN] Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This study responds to the need for an effective method to integrate climate change projections into water planning and management analysis in order to guide the decision-making, taking into account drought risk assessments. Therefore, this document presents a general and adaptive methodology based on a modeling chain and correction processes, whose main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator, and the simulation of future water storage in the water resources system (WRS). This method was applied in the Jucar River basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it suffers recurrently. The results showed a worrying decrease in future inflows, as well as a high probability (approximate to 80%) of being under 50% of total capacity of the WRS in the near future. However, the uncertainty of the results was considerable from the mid-century onwards, indicating that the skill of climate projections needs to be improved in order to obtain more reliable results. Consequently, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of method, taking partial decisions to adapt them as far as possible to the basin in an attempt to obtain clearer conclusions on climate change impact assessments. Despite the high uncertainty, the results of the JRB call for action and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible and robust method to facilitate and support decision-making in complex basins for future water planning and management. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This research has been supported by IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes (IMPREX) (grant no. 641811), Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation (SWICCA) (grant no. ECMRWF-CopernicusFA 2015/C3S_441-LOT1/SMHI), Estimacion del Riesgo Ambiental frente a las Sequias y el cambio climatico (ERAS) (grant no. CTM2016-77804-P), and Time scale reduction on water resources and environmental planning (RESPHIRA) (grant no. PID2019-106322RB-100). es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject.classification INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA es_ES
dc.title Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641811/EU/IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes/
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC//ECMRWF-Copernicus-FA 2015%2FC3S_441-LOT1%2FSMHI/EU/Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation/SWICCA/ es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2019-106322RB-I00/ES/REDUCCION DE LA ESCALA TEMPORAL EN LA PLANIFICACION HIDROLOGICA PARA LA GESTION DE RECURSOS Y EL MEDIO AMBIENTE/ es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CTM2016-77804-P/ES/ESTIMACION DEL RIESGO AMBIENTAL FRENTE A LAS SEQUIAS Y EL CAMBIO CLIMATICO/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente - Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente - Institut Universitari d'Enginyeria de l'Aigua i Medi Ambient es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Suárez-Almiñana, S.; Solera Solera, A.; Madrigal, J.; Andreu Álvarez, J.; Paredes Arquiola, J. (2020). Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. 24(11):5297-5315. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 5297 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 5315 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 24 es_ES
dc.description.issue 11 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\421800 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder European Commission es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Agencia Estatal de Investigación es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Sveriges Meteorologiska o Hydrologiska Institut, Suecia es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad es_ES
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dc.subject.ods 06.- Garantizar la disponibilidad y la gestión sostenible del agua y el saneamiento para todos es_ES
dc.subject.ods 13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos es_ES


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