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Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election

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Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election

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dc.contributor.author Romero, Rafael es_ES
dc.contributor.author Pavía, Jose M. es_ES
dc.contributor.author Martín Marín, Jorge es_ES
dc.contributor.author Romero, Gerardo es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-17T04:32:09Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-17T04:32:09Z
dc.date.issued 2020-11-17 es_ES
dc.identifier.issn 0266-4763 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/161604
dc.description.abstract [EN] Inferring electoral individual behaviour from aggregated data is a very active research area, with ramifications in sociology and political science. A new approach based on linear programming is proposed to estimate voter transitions among parties (or candidates) between two elections. Compared to other linear and quadratic programming models previously published, our approach presents two important innovations. Firstly, it explicitly deals with new entries and exits in the election census without assuming unrealistic hypotheses, enabling a reasonable estimation of vote behaviour of young electors voting for the first time. Secondly, by exploiting the information contained in the model residuals, we develop a procedure to assess the uncertainty in the estimates. This significantly distinguishes our model from other published mathematical programming methods. The method is illustrated estimating the vote transfer matrix between the first and second rounds of the 2017 French presidential election and measuring its level of uncertainty. Likewise, compared to the most current alternatives based on ecological regression, our approach is considerably simpler and faster, and has provided reasonable results in all the actual elections to which it has been applied. Interested scholars can easily use our procedure with the aid of the R-function provided in the Supplemental Material. es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship This piece of research has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the Spanish Agency of Research, co-funded with FEDER funds, grant ECO2017-87245-R, and by Consellería d'Innovació, Universitats, Ciència i Societat Digital, Generalitat Valenciana, grant AICO/2019/053. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Taylor & Francis es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Applied Statistics es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Ecological inference es_ES
dc.subject Linear programming es_ES
dc.subject Voter transitions es_ES
dc.subject R x C contingency tables es_ES
dc.subject French elections es_ES
dc.subject.classification ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA es_ES
dc.title Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1080/02664763.2020.1804842 es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/ECO2017-87245-R/ES/INNOVACION SOCIAL Y ECONOMICA, DESCIFRANDO LA FUNCION DE LA CULTURA Y LA COMUNICACION./ es_ES
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/GVA//AICO%2F2019%2F053/ es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad - Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa Aplicades i Qualitat es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Romero, R.; Pavía, JM.; Martín Marín, J.; Romero, G. (2020). Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election. Journal of Applied Statistics. 47(13-15):2711-2736. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1804842 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1804842 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 2711 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 2736 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 47 es_ES
dc.description.issue 13-15 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\420185 es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Generalitat Valenciana es_ES
dc.contributor.funder Agencia Estatal de Investigación es_ES
dc.contributor.funder European Regional Development Fund es_ES
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