COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population

Abstract

[EN] Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60-69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87-1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65-70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19.