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COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population

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COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population

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dc.contributor.author Marco-Franco, Julio Emilio es_ES
dc.contributor.author Guadalajara Olmeda, María Natividad es_ES
dc.contributor.author González-De Julián, Silvia es_ES
dc.contributor.author Vivas-Consuelo, David es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2021-05-22T03:31:28Z
dc.date.available 2021-05-22T03:31:28Z
dc.date.issued 2020-07 es_ES
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/166637
dc.description.abstract [EN] Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60-69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87-1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65-70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher MDPI AG es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Sustainability es_ES
dc.rights Reconocimiento (by) es_ES
dc.subject Healthcare planning es_ES
dc.subject Health economy es_ES
dc.subject Herd immunity es_ES
dc.subject Mathematical epidemiology es_ES
dc.subject COVID-19 es_ES
dc.subject Case fatality rate es_ES
dc.subject Infectious fatality rate es_ES
dc.subject Relative risk ratio es_ES
dc.subject Predictive modeling es_ES
dc.subject.classification ECONOMIA APLICADA es_ES
dc.subject.classification ECONOMIA FINANCIERA Y CONTABILIDAD es_ES
dc.subject.classification ECONOMIA, SOCIOLOGIA Y POLITICA AGRARIA es_ES
dc.title COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.3390/su12135228 es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Economía y Ciencias Sociales - Departament d'Economia i Ciències Socials es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Marco-Franco, JE.; Guadalajara Olmeda, MN.; González-De Julián, S.; Vivas-Consuelo, D. (2020). COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population. Sustainability. 12(13):1-10. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135228 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135228 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 1 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 10 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 12 es_ES
dc.description.issue 13 es_ES
dc.identifier.eissn 2071-1050 es_ES
dc.relation.pasarela S\414740 es_ES
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dc.subject.ods 03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades es_ES


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