Análisis de plagas cuarentenarias en un sistema de producción de aguacate en Colombia bajo escenarios de clima actual y cambio climático.

Abstract

[EN] At the beginning an introspection of various factors that characterize the areas under study is performed. In this way, it is possible to define in greater detail and depth all the variables that will condition the conduct of the present study. Once the different parties involved in the development of this project are established, the method to be used is defined, starting with the historical development, Below is the current definition as well as the different areas in which this tool has applicability. Once the context is established, the different possible actions and/or existing methods to achieve reliable and scientifically based prediction models are presented. These formulae will provide the basis to support reliability and robustness in the proposed prediction model and will provide a reference for similar activities. Subsequently, the rationale and guidelines selected to carry out the prediction of the distribution of quarantine pests in avocado fruit due to environmental changes produced by climate change in tropical and subtropical areas will be explained. Specifically, with the three pests considered quarantine in Colombia; Xyleborus spp, Heilipus lauri and Stenoma catenifer. This work, summarized in the above lines, establishes the basis for the formulation of an ecological niche prediction model in addition to, a documentary and knowledge base useful for the development of similar prediction models in these areas.

[ES] El objetivo de este trabajo es generar herramientas de modelos especiales de distribución de plagas en aguacate en Colombia, utilizando el enfoque de modelos de nicho. Para esto, se modelaran las plagas principales cuaternarias bajo dos enfoques en las áreas productoras de aguacate: Bajo escenarios de clima actual y de clima futuro asociado al cambio climático. En primera instancia, se analizará la información, determinando los puntos de presencia de cada plaga a través de muestreos proporcionados por un trabajo previo de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, bases de datos, artículos científicos y laboratorios de diagnostico de fitosanitarios del país. A partir de ese análisis se creará una base de datos con las coordenadas de presencia. A continuación, se prepararán las capas ambientales utilizadas como predictoras en los modelos de nicho. Para finalizar se realizarán los modelos de predicción utilizando diferentes algoritmos.