Influence of public procurement criteria on delays and cost overruns for the construction of interurban roads in Peru.

Abstract

[ES] El Trabajo de Fin de Máster estudia los retrasos, sobrecostes y los riesgos que los generan durante la fase de construcción de las carreteras vecinales en Perú. A partir de datos públicos obtenidos de la plataforma INFObras, el Sistema de Seguimiento de Inversiones (SSI), el buscador de procedimientos de selección del Sistema Electrónico de Contrataciones del Estado (SE@CE), y el buscador público Cuaderno de Obra Digital (COD), se recopila información respecto al proceso de licitación, contratación y ejecución de los contratos de obras, obteniendo datos como la duración de la licitación, el plazo y coste de contratación, el avance físico y financiero en la ejecución, ampliaciones de plazo y adicionales de obra, liquidación del proyecto, entre otros. A partir de esto, se caracteriza la contratación de los proyectos; se determinan los retrasos y sobrecostes, en cuanto a ocurrencia y magnitud, así como si tienen relación significativa con las características de contratación. Adicionalmente, se identifican los riesgos más importantes que provocan retraso y sobre coste, sus impactos y si tienen relación significativa con las características de contratación. El trabajo de investigación se limita a la fase de construcción de carreteras vecinales en Perú, también llamadas carreteras interurbanas. Todas las carreteras vecinales consideradas en el análisis están registradas en el portal web de INFObras y se caracterizan por ser proyectos de construcción nueva, finalizados, con modalidad de ejecución por contrata, estrategia de pago a precios unitarios y estrategia de contratación de Proyecto-Licitación-Construcción.

[EN] Highway projects are considered high-risk due to their extensive impact on a nation's economic and social landscape. As they are public works, these projects require efficient and productive execution of high quality while ensuring that the costs remain low and the timeframe is short. However, highway construction projects worldwide often experience delays and cost overruns, which can result in unfavorable economic consequences. This also casts doubt on institutions' ability to manage public funds responsibly. To prevent this, effective risk management is essential in highway projects, and the contracting strategy for highway projects has a key role in their success and should be chosen carefully based on the project's characteristics. With its poorly developed road infrastructure, Peru must prioritize improving highway construction projects to bridge the gap and contribute to its economic growth. The objective of this study is to (1) analyze the effects of hiring features on delays and cost overruns in road projects in Peru base on its hiring features, (2) pinpoint the most significant risks associated with delays and cost overruns in road projects, and (3) investigate the influence of hiring features on the occurrence and magnitudes of these delay and cost overrun risks. A review of the relevant literature was conducted to identify the risks associated with delays and cost overruns in construction projects. A risk breakdown structure (RBS) was then developed. Contract data was collected for 127 highway projects in Peru to identify delay and cost overrun risks and define contracting characteristics for analysis. The highway projects were characterized using descriptive statistics. Logistic and linear regressions were used to analyze data related to delays and cost overruns. Finally, the risks were evaluated using the probability and impact matrix to identify the most significant, and were statistically analyzed with respect to hiring features using logistic and linear regressions. The results showed that delays and cost overruns are common in highway construction projects and often occur simultaneously. Several hiring features, including contract size, contract execution period, promoter type, geographical region, bidding process period, and award coefficient, were found to influence the likelihood and magnitude of delays and cost overruns. The most significant delay risks were delays in responding to requests, problems with owners surrounding the work site, adverse weather conditions, and COVID-19. The most significant cost overrun risks were land availability problems, inaccurate estimates of the project's cost, mistakes, omissions, and discrepancies in project documents, inadequate site investigations, problems with owners surrounding the work site, inflation/market fluctuation, and adverse weather conditions. The identify of significant delay and cost overrun risks in public investment projects, such as road projects, can greatly assist in the effective risk management of such projects. By pinpointing the hiring features that contribute to these delays and cost overruns, management strategies that are better equipped to handle these issues can be proposed. As a result, this can reduce delays and cost overruns, thus ensuring the successful completion of public investment projects.