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Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach

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Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach

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dc.contributor.author Cortés López, Juan Carlos es_ES
dc.contributor.author Sánchez Sánchez, Almudena es_ES
dc.contributor.author Santonja, Francisco José es_ES
dc.contributor.author Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto es_ES
dc.date.accessioned 2014-03-26T07:27:36Z
dc.date.issued 2013-09-15
dc.identifier.issn 0096-3003
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10251/36652
dc.description.abstract Academic underachievement is a concern of paramount importance in Europe, and particularly in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school do not achieve the minimum knowledge academic requirement. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a mathematical model via a system of ordinary differential equations to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, a bootstrapping approach is employed. This technique permits to forecast model trends in the next few years using confidence intervals. Unfortunately, the obtained results do not suggest improvement in academic performance for the coming years. es_ES
dc.language Inglés es_ES
dc.publisher Elsevier es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof Applied Mathematics and Computation es_ES
dc.rights Reserva de todos los derechos es_ES
dc.subject Academic underachievement es_ES
dc.subject Modelling es_ES
dc.subject Transmission dynamics es_ES
dc.subject Uncertainty es_ES
dc.subject Bootstrapping es_ES
dc.subject Prediction es_ES
dc.subject.classification MATEMATICA APLICADA es_ES
dc.title Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach es_ES
dc.type Artículo es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.amc.2013.06.070
dc.rights.accessRights Abierto es_ES
dc.contributor.affiliation Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada es_ES
dc.description.bibliographicCitation Cortés López, JC.; Sánchez Sánchez, A.; Santonja, FJ.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2013). Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach. Applied Mathematics and Computation. 221(15):648-661. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2013.06.070 es_ES
dc.description.accrualMethod S es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2013.06.070 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpinicio 648 es_ES
dc.description.upvformatpfin 661 es_ES
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_ES
dc.description.volume 221 es_ES
dc.description.issue 15 es_ES
dc.relation.senia 251638


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