A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics

Abstract

This article presents a stochastic dynamic model to study the demographic evolution per sexes and the corresponding well-being of a general human population. The main model variables are population per sexes and well-being. The considered well-being variable is the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), a United Nations index. The model's objectives are to improve future well-being and to reach a stable population in a country. The application case consists of adapting, validating, and using the model for Spain in the 2000–2006 period. Some instance strategies have been tested in different scenarios for the 2006–2015 period to meet these objectives by calculating the reliability of the results. The optimal strategy is “government invests more in education and maintains the present health investment tendency.”