Monitorización de la mortalidad en europa mediante gráficos de control

Abstract

[EN] The increases in the average human life span along the years have being recognized and therefore, actuaries, statistician and demographers have created numerous mathematic models in order to make forecasts more accurate, since these forecasts are a crucial point for private and public institutions. This paper has as a main objetive to fit the Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with two terms and the Age-Period-Cohort to Colombia’s mortality data. The results show that the Lee-Carter with two terms model is the best fitting Colombia’s mortality rates, especially women rates. (inglés)

[ES] Este trabajo propone el uso combinado de series temporales, que nos permiten realizar previsiones a partir de datos pasados, y gráficos de control EWMA, que posibilitan detectar cambios de tendencia, para explicar el comportamiento de la tasa de mortalidad estandarizada (SMR) para un conjunto de países europeos entre los años 1990 y 2009.