Integrating hydrological modelling and ecosystem functioning for environmental flows in climate change scenarios in the Zambezi River (Zambezi Region, Namibia)

Abstract

The Zambezi-Chobe wetlands in Namibia are of great international importance for trans-boundary water management because of their remarkable ecological characteristics and the variety and magnitude of the ecosystem services provided. The main objective of this study is to establish the hydro-ecological baseline for the application of environmental flow regimes (EFR). The specific objectives are: (i) the assessment of environmental flow components (EFC) in the current near-natural hydrological conditions; (ii) the generation of future scenarios for climatic and socioeconomic changes; (iii) the estimation of the area duration curves and estimated annual habitat during the inundation of the critical habitats for fisheries (mulapos), under the existing conditions and future scenarios; and (iv) to provide a framework for the future application of EFRs, based on hydrological and ecological processes. To make a sound analysis of the ecological implications, first we develop a conceptual framework of the linkages between the hydrological and biological processes concerning fish communities, because of the critical role of fisheries in the region. The EFCs in near-natural hydrological conditions provide the basis for developing interim EFRs in the region, within the framework of an adaptive management of water resources. The future scenarios indicate a mitigation of the flow variability; and, in the worst-case scenario, the reduction of the maximum flow and inundated area of the mulapos would result in a reduction of the estimated annual habitat of 22%. This means a reduction in the spawning habitats for quiet-water species, in the food resources for fry and juvenile fish and a consequent reduction in fish stocks. Furthermore, the habitat loss during low events is similar and greater under both scenarios, at ca. 35%. Here we corroborate that the EFCs and their variability may become the building blocks of flow-ecology models that lead to environmental flow recommendations, monitoring and research programmes and flow protection activities.