Modelling and analysing voting behaviour: the case of the Spanish general elections

Abstract

[EN] The permanent high-level public and private debt, high unsustainable youth unemployment rates, combined with the constant disclosure of establishment parties’ corruption scandals, are features of the present Spanish scenario. Lack of confidence in the government’s labour is driving a large proportion of the electoral register to support new emergent political parties. This article models and analyses Spanish citizens’ electoral behaviour in what were the last Spanish General Elections (2015). The proposed compartmental model is based on a system of six different equations. Transition coefficients are quantified according to economic, demographic, psychological and sociological factors. After obtaining the initial data from previous general elections and by sampling new voters’ intentions, the expected electoral support was computed and analysed. Our results predict the end of the two-party system in Spain and a change to a main four-party system.